Going Nuclear
There’s a lot of talk right now about breaking out the “nuclear option” in the Senate, and getting rid of the filibuster in order to pass the current Continuing Resolution and open the government. It’s tempting.
Proponents argue that with the filibuster gone, the Republicans could not only open the government (and claim the all-important political credit for doing so) but could also take full advantage of their current majority in Washington to pass all kinds of great legislation.
From the gun rights side, I’ve seen folks excitedly positing that the GOP could push through all kinds of pro-gun stuff. A short list would be repeal the National Firearms Act, repeal the Hughes Amendment, and enact national constitutional carry. Sounds great, right?
Send it? Not so fast…
But ol’ cynical Dave has been around a few years and would like to point out that that last time I can recall the Republicans doing anything significant when they have been in power was Newt Gingrich’s “Contract With America” in 1994…the first time the GOP had held the House in 40 years. Remember the last time the Republicans had the trifecta of House and Senate majorities, with Donald Trump in the White House? Remember how they used that to pass the relatively benign national concealed carry reciprocity and suppressor deregulation bills? No, you don’t. They had the power to help gun owners by passing those pieces of legislation back in 2017, and even though the President had said that he would sign them, the GOP controlled Congress faltered.
With that in mind, what makes you think the Republicans would do anything significant now, even with the power to do so? They haven’t demonstrated any stomach to do any such thing in decades, and I don’t believe they’re about to start now. Blow away the filibuster, and the Republicans will almost certainly squander that opportunity. It’s their go-to move.
Then there’s the (I think) rather obvious risk to eliminating the filibuster, which is how it will be used when (not if) the Democrats regain control. Can you imagine the damage they could do to gun rights if all they needed was a simple majority vote? Say hello to bans on semiautomatic rifles and full gun registration, for starters. They’d simply start ticking off their gun control wish list, with Republicans powerless to stop it. And if you think the courts would save us, think about the federal judges and justices they’d be appointing, with or without Republican consent. Any sitting pro-2A judges could be easily impeached, removed, and replaced.
Will the Democrats nuke the filibuster anyway, next time they’re in power? Maybe. And for those who think such a possibility means the GOP could go ahead and do it now and pass everything on their agenda while they can, do you realize how easily it could all be undone once all the Democrats need is a simple majority? Never mind the aforementioned likelihood that the Republicans wouldn’t really do anything important with that power, even if they had it.
Yes, it is possible that the Democrats could nuke the filibuster next time they’re up, and that could lead to a gun rights apocalypse. But the Republicans pushing that button now ensures it.
